Launch reliability scorecard by provider
Success, failure and scrub counts from 652 tracked launches, with a smoothed reliability score for each provider.
Launch reliability scorecard (10 busiest providers)
| Provider | Total | Success | Failure | Scrubbed | Scheduled | Reliability score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 312 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 98.7 |
| China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation | 124 | 117 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 97.7 |
| Rocket Lab | 46 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 98.0 |
| Russian Federal Space Agency (ROSCOSMOS) | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 96.0 |
| Arianespace | 16 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 95.5 |
| Russian Space Forces | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.0 |
| Indian Space Research Organization | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 84.2 |
| United Launch Alliance | 14 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 95.2 |
| Blue Origin | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91.3 |
| Galactic Energy | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 85.0 |
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About the launch reliability by provider
How reliable is each launch provider? The Martian Alpha scorecard counts every tracked launch by provider (successes, failures, scrubs and scheduled missions) and turns the record into a reliability score from 0 to 100.
- How is the reliability score calculated?
- Score = (successes + 0.5 × scrubs + 9) ÷ (completed launches + 10) × 100. The "+9 / +10" is a Bayesian prior of 90% reliability over ten launches, so a provider with one or two flights can't score a perfect 100 by luck.
- Why do scrubs count as half a success?
- A scrub is a postponed attempt, not a lost vehicle or payload, so it is weighted between a success and a failure.
Data may be delayed. Not financial advice.