Do Space Stocks Move After a Launch? 12 Months of Data

Not much, on average. In Martian Alpha's launch-reaction data for the 12 months to October 13, 2026, Rocket Lab's stock moved +0.33% on the next trading day after its 25 successful launches and +1.19% over five trading days, both measured net of the S&P 500. Those averages hide a wide spread from one launch to the next, and the other companies in the data have only two to four launches each, so their numbers are anecdotes, not patterns. This is research, not financial advice.

The data: 12 months to October 13, 2026#

Martian Alpha records each launch by company and compares the company's stock move afterwards with the S&P 500 over the same days. The table shows the average abnormal move, meaning the stock's return minus the S&P 500's, for launches that succeeded. SpaceX (SPCX) counts launches only since its first trading day, June 12, 2026.

Source: Martian Alpha's State of Space Equities report and its launch-reactions dataset, window 2025-10-13 to 2026-10-13, read October 13, 2026. The columns show success launches. Each reaction runs from the last close before the launch to the close of the first session after it on the stock's own exchange, so a launch after the close counts on the next trading session; launches without both closes yet are left out. The only failure in the window is Mitsubishi Heavy's: the stock's average move was -0.54% net of the S&P 500 on the next trading day and -1.84% over five days.

Rocket Lab stock after a launch, and what else the numbers say#

• Rocket Lab is the best-measured case. With 25 launches, the average next-day move after a success is close to zero (+0.33%). One reading is that a routine success is largely expected before the rocket lifts off, but this data cannot prove that.
• SpaceX is similar but a different kind of stock. Its 47 launches since the listing average -0.23% on the next trading day and -1.00% over five days, net of the S&P 500. The window is about four months.
• Mitsubishi Heavy, Avio and Northrop Grumman have too few launches to read. Two launches (Avio, Northrop) or four (Mitsubishi) cannot separate a launch reaction from the stock's ordinary daily noise. Avio's +3.04% next-day average rests on two events.
• Failures are almost unmeasured. One failure in the window, at one company, is a single data point. It says nothing about how stocks react to failures in general.

Why averages hide the story#

Three things can make an average look more meaningful than it is:

1. Sample size. Averages of two events swing wildly. Before reading a number, read the launch count next to it.
2. Other news on the same day. Earnings, contract awards and financing announcements often land near a launch. A stock's move may belong to any of them. Martian Alpha's catalyst feed lists those events by date.
3. Large companies and small ones differ. For a company where launches are the main product (Rocket Lab), a launch result is closer to company news. For a diversified prime (Northrop Grumman, Mitsubishi Heavy), one launch is a small part of the business.

For why a "100% success rate" can also mislead, see our guide to comparing launch success rates fairly.

A checklist for reading your own launch reactions#

• Count the launches first; ignore averages built on fewer than about ten events.
• Use a benchmark. A raw move on a day the whole market rose says little.
• Compare next-day and five-day moves; a gap can mean a delayed reaction or just noise.
• Look for other news on the same days.
• Keep failures separate from successes, and say how many there were.
• Note the date range. A 12-month window can miss earlier history.

Where this data lives#

The figures come from the Martian Alpha Space Ledger, a daily record kept by the site. The State of Space Equities report includes a "How to cite" line and updates daily; the table above is a snapshot, so check the report for the current window. You can see upcoming launches on the free launch calendar, compare providers on the reliability scorecard, and open Rocket Lab's company page for its stock and catalysts.

FAQ#

How does Rocket Lab stock react to a launch?#

In the data for the 12 months to October 13, 2026, Rocket Lab's stock averaged +0.33% on the next trading day and +1.19% over five trading days after its 25 successful launches, net of the S&P 500. That is a small average move; individual launches varied, and no failures were recorded in the window.

Do space stocks go up after a successful launch?#

On average, not by much. In the data for the 12 months to October 13, 2026, Rocket Lab's average move was +0.33% the next trading day after a success, net of the S&P 500, across 25 launches. SpaceX's was -0.23% across 47 launches since its June 12 listing.

What happens to a space stock when a launch fails?#

The window has one failure, at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, where the stock's average move was -0.54% net of the S&P 500 on the next trading day. One event is not enough to say how failures usually affect stocks.

What does "net of the S&P 500" mean?#

It means the stock's return minus the S&P 500's return over the same period, so a market-wide rise or fall is removed. It is a simple comparison, not a full model of expected returns.

Why only 12 months of data?#

The State of Space report uses a trailing 12-month window ending on the report date. SpaceX's figures start at its first trading day, June 12, 2026, because it did not trade before then.

Is this a trading signal?#

No. These are historical averages with small samples, and launches are only one of many things that move a stock.

Sources#

• Martian Alpha, State of Space Equities report and launch-reactions dataset (martianalpha.com/api/datasets/launch-reactions), window 2025-10-13 to 2026-10-13, benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC), read October 13, 2026.