How likely is a satellite collision?

Most predicted close approaches have probabilities below one in a million. Operators typically consider a manoeuvre above about one in 10,000 using precise data; the maximum probabilities published from public data run higher, so this monitor flags 1 in 1,000 as high.

Why does this matter to investors?

Collisions and manoeuvres cost fuel, service time and insurance, and large constellations face thousands of conjunctions a week.

Satellite collision and debris monitor

Today's riskiest close approaches between satellites and debris, scored for risk and grouped by operator.

How the risk score works

Each predicted close approach from public conjunction screening gets a 0–100 score from its maximum collision probability on a log scale (1 in 100 million scores 0, 1 in 10 scores 100), with a bump for miss distances under 500 m. "High" means a maximum probability of at least 1 in 1,000.

Operators covered

SpaceX Starlink, Amazon Project Kuiper, Eutelsat OneWeb, Iridium, Globalstar, Planet, Spire, BlackSky, AST SpaceMobile and more, linked to their stocks where public.

See the full top list and operator breakdown. Create a free Martian Alpha account or sign in.

About the satellite collision and debris monitor

Predicted close approaches between satellites and space debris over the next week from public conjunction screening, scored for risk and grouped by operator so you can see which constellations and companies face the most conjunctions.

How likely is a satellite collision?: Most predicted close approaches have probabilities below one in a million. Operators typically consider a manoeuvre above about one in 10,000 using precise data; the maximum probabilities published from public data run higher, so this monitor flags 1 in 1,000 as high.
Why does this matter to investors?: Collisions and manoeuvres cost fuel, service time and insurance, and large constellations face thousands of conjunctions a week.

Data may be delayed. Not financial advice.