Martian Alpha SpaceX Launch Schedule: How to Read It, With 2026 Counts
Where SpaceX launch dates come from, what NET and TBD mean, the next Falcon 9 and Starship missions, and how launches show up in SPCX's results.
SpaceX's launch schedule is spread across several places: SpaceX's own launches page lists only the next one or two missions with firm times, NASA and the Space Force publish dates for their own payloads, and trackers such as Launch Library 2 fill in everything else as "no earlier than" (NET) dates of varying precision. As of October 5, 2026, only three of the next 20 SpaceX launches in Launch Library 2 had a confirmed time; the rest were pinned to a month, a quarter or just "2026". SpaceX flew 116 times between January 1 and October 2, 2026, and the schedule has moved west: Florida Falcon 9 Starlink launches have stopped, and Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28.
Where SpaceX launch dates come from#
No single list has every SpaceX launch with a reliable date. Each source covers a different slice:
| Source | What it shows | How far ahead | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX launches page | The next 1-2 missions, with vehicle, pad, landing site and time in Eastern Time | Usually days | The official time and window once a launch is close |
| NASA mission pages and blogs | Crew, cargo and science launches NASA buys | Weeks to months | Dragon crew and cargo flights, NASA science missions |
| Space Force ranges (45th Weather Squadron launch forecasts for Florida) | Weather forecasts for scheduled Eastern Range launches | A few days | Confirming a Florida launch is really on |
| Launch Library 2 (The Space Devs) | Every known SpaceX mission, with a NET date and a precision label | Months to years | The full pipeline, including placeholders |
| Local press schedules (Florida Today, for example) | Upcoming Florida launches with viewing details | Weeks | Cross-checking Florida dates |
The SpaceX page is the authority for a launch that's days away, but it says nothing about December. Trackers cover December, but much of what they list is a placeholder.
What NET and "TBD" actually mean#
Most dates on a SpaceX schedule are "NET", no earlier than: the launch won't happen before that date, and it often happens later. Launch Library 2 adds a precision label to each date, which is the most useful single field for judging how firm a date is.
On October 5, 2026, the next 20 SpaceX launches in Launch Library 2 broke down like this:
| Date precision | Launches | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Exact time (second or minute) | 3 | Starlink Group 15-25 from Vandenberg, Oct 10 |
| Month | 6 | Bandwagon-5 rideshare (October), Cygnus NG-25 (November) |
| Quarter (Q4) | 8 | Starship Flight 15, several Space Development Agency launches |
| Half-year or year | 3 | Globalstar 2-R Mission 2, Rivada 1 |
A date shown as December 31 with "Q4" or "2026" precision isn't a launch date. It's the last day of the window the mission is expected in. Calendars that drop the precision label make these placeholders look like firm dates, which is how a "December 31" launch ends up in a newsletter. Launch Library 2 listed 131 upcoming SpaceX missions in total on October 5, most of them in that state.
Two habits help:
- Trust a time only when the status is "Go". Launch Library 2 marks a launch "Go for Launch" once official or reliable sources confirm the T-0. Until then it's "TBD" or "TBC".
- Convert the time zone. SpaceX lists times in Eastern Time even for California launches. The October 10 Starlink window, 19:00-23:00 ET, runs from 23:00 UTC on October 10 to 03:00 UTC on October 11.
Upcoming SpaceX launches (snapshot as of October 5, 2026)#
These were the nearest SpaceX missions with at least a target month. Dates move; check the live sources before relying on any of them.
| Mission | Vehicle | Site | Target (NET) | Customer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink Group 15-25 | Falcon 9 | SLC-4E, Vandenberg | Oct 10, 19:00-23:00 ET | SpaceX (internal) |
| CRS-35 (Dragon cargo) | Falcon 9 | SLC-40, Cape Canaveral | Oct 13, 10:33 UTC | NASA |
| Bandwagon-5 rideshare | Falcon 9 | SLC-40, Cape Canaveral | October (month only) | Rideshare customers |
| Cygnus NG-25 | Falcon 9 | SLC-40, Cape Canaveral | November (month only) | NASA / Northrop Grumman |
| Starship Flight 15 | Starship | Pad 2, Starbase | Q4 2026 | SpaceX (test flight) |
| Griffin Mission One | Falcon Heavy | LC-39A, Kennedy | December (month only) | Astrobotic / NASA |
The SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer A launch from Vandenberg was set for October 5 at 08:17 UTC, just before this snapshot was taken. Florida Today's October 1 schedule listed CRS-35 for October with the time to be announced, and noted that no other firm October dates had appeared on the Eastern Range schedule.
SpaceX's 2026 launch count so far#
SpaceX reports its launch count in its quarterly results, and the trackers agree with it:
| Period | SpaceX-reported launches | Launch Library 2 count |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 40 (7 customer, 33 internal) | 40 |
| Q2 2026 | 38 (10 customer, 28 internal) | 38 |
| Q3 2026 | Not reported yet | 35 |
| Oct 1-2 | – | 3 |
The SpaceX figures come from the space segment table in its second-quarter results, filed with the SEC. Launch Library 2's monthly counts add up to the same 40 and 38, which suggests SpaceX's totals include Starship flights (Flight 12 flew in Q2).
Of the 116 launches from January 1 to October 2, Launch Library 2 counts 110 Falcon 9, 3 Falcon Heavy and 3 Starship flights, with no failures. By site: 62 from Vandenberg in California, 48 from Cape Canaveral's SLC-40, 3 from Kennedy's LC-39A and 3 from Starbase in Texas.
The pace is lower than 2025's. Falcon 9 flew 165 times last year, according to The Space Review, and Launch Library 2 counts 170 SpaceX launches in 2025 once Starship flights are included. September 2026, with 8 launches, was SpaceX's slowest month of the year in the tracker's count.
Why the schedule moved west#
Three changes explain most of the shift.
Florida Starlink launches stopped. Florida Today's October schedule attributes the drop in Space Coast launches to "SpaceX ending the era of Florida Falcon 9 Starlink missions." The last Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida in Launch Library 2 was Starlink Group 10-49 on August 25, 2026. Starlink launches continue from Vandenberg, and Florida still sees Falcon 9 flights for NASA, national security and commercial customers. Florida hosted 56 launches from all providers through September, against a record 109 in all of 2025.
Falcon 9 is winding down, unofficially. SpaceX hasn't announced a retirement date. But in September, executives at World Space Business Week said it had become effectively impossible to book a commercial Falcon 9 launch, and companies had earlier reported that SpaceX stopped taking rideshare reservations beyond late 2028 or early 2029 (The Space Review). Elon Musk wrote on X in August that once Starship is flying reliably several times a week, it makes sense to shift resources to it, "which means winding down Falcon" (Light Reading). Government and NASA missions already booked on Falcon 9 keep it on the schedule for now.
Starship reached orbit. On September 28, Starship Flight 14 lifted off from Starbase, entered orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, according to SpaceX. One booster engine and one upper-stage vacuum engine shut down early, and SpaceX ended the coast phase early as a precaution. Florida Today reports that a first Starship launch from pad 39A at Kennedy is anticipated, though no date has been set. Flight 15 is listed only as Q4 2026.
For satellite companies that relied on Falcon 9 rideshares, this is a schedule risk, not just a SpaceX story. Our post on Amazon Leo and its FCC deadlines shows how launch supply turns directly into regulatory deadlines.
What the launch schedule means for SPCX shareholders#
Since its June 2026 IPO, SpaceX reports launch activity every quarter. Routine launches don't get their own filings; the numbers show up in the quarterly results:
- Customer vs internal launches. Customer launches earn launch services revenue; internal launches (mostly Starlink) are a cost of building the network. In Q2 2026, 10 of 38 launches were for customers, and launch services revenue was $648 million, up from $330 million in Q1.
- Mass to orbit. SpaceX reported 485 metric tons in Q2 2026, down from 556 in Q1. As Starship carries more Starlink satellites, this number may matter more than the launch count.
- The Q3 results date. SpaceX hadn't announced it as of October 5. It also sets one of the largest SpaceX share unlocks of the year, as our space IPO lock-up calendar explains.
A useful check before each earnings release: count the quarter's launches yourself from a tracker, split them into Starlink and customer missions, and compare with what SpaceX reports. Large gaps usually come from counting rules, such as how Starship test flights are treated.
None of this is a reason to buy or sell SPCX. Launch counts are one input, and the schedule changes week to week. This is not financial advice.
A quick checklist for following SpaceX launches#
- Use the SpaceX launches page for the next mission's exact time, and convert from Eastern Time.
- Use a tracker for everything further out, and read the precision label before writing down a date.
- Treat any December 31 date with "Q4" or "2026" precision as a placeholder.
- For NASA missions, check NASA's mission page; for Florida launches, check the Space Force weather forecast a few days out.
- After a launch, check the result. Our guide to launch success rates by rocket explains how to compare records fairly.
- For Starlink, follow the satellite count rather than the launch count; see how many Starlink satellites are in orbit.
Tracking SpaceX launches in Martian Alpha#
Martian Alpha's free Launch Calendar pulls upcoming and recent launches from Launch Library 2. It separates launches with a confirmed date from those still marked TBD, shows recent results, and links the launch provider and payload customer to their company pages when they're public, so a SpaceX launch links to the SPCX company page. The Launch Reliability Scorecard compares providers' track records, the rocket viewer has Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Starship specs, and the Catalyst Feed tags launch news alongside earnings and filings. All four are free. For how launches fit into an investor's calendar more broadly, see our rocket launch calendar guide.
FAQ#
When is the next SpaceX launch?#
As of October 5, 2026, the next scheduled SpaceX launch after the SDA Tranche 1 mission was Starlink Group 15-25 on Falcon 9 from Vandenberg, in a window from 19:00 to 23:00 ET on October 10, followed by NASA's CRS-35 cargo mission from Cape Canaveral on October 13. Check SpaceX's launches page for the current time, since dates change often.
How many launches has SpaceX done in 2026?#
116 from January 1 to October 2, 2026, by Launch Library 2's count: 110 Falcon 9, 3 Falcon Heavy and 3 Starship flights. SpaceX itself reported 40 launches in the first quarter and 38 in the second; its third-quarter figure comes with its next results.
Why did SpaceX stop launching Starlink from Florida?#
SpaceX hasn't given a detailed public explanation. Florida Today reported in October 2026 that SpaceX had ended Florida Falcon 9 Starlink missions; the last one in Launch Library 2 was Starlink Group 10-49 on August 25, 2026. Starlink launches continue from Vandenberg, and Florida still hosts Falcon 9 missions for NASA and other customers. Florida Today also reports that a first Starship launch from pad 39A is anticipated.
When is the next Starship flight?#
Starship Flight 14, the first to reach orbit, flew on September 28, 2026. As of October 5, Flight 15 was listed for Q4 2026 from Starbase with no specific date. Watch for a confirmed date on SpaceX's launches page.
Is SpaceX retiring Falcon 9?#
Not officially. SpaceX hasn't announced a retirement date, but industry executives say commercial Falcon 9 launches are effectively no longer for sale, rideshare bookings reportedly stop in late 2028, and Elon Musk has said Falcon will wind down once Starship flies reliably several times a week. Government missions already booked on Falcon 9 keep it flying for now.
Sources#
- SpaceX: launches page (upcoming and recent missions, checked 2026-10-05) and Starship Flight 14 mission summary
- Launch Library 2 API (The Space Devs): upcoming SpaceX launches and previous SpaceX launches since January 1, 2026 (checked 2026-10-05)
- SpaceX second-quarter 2026 results, earnings release filed with the SEC, space segment operating data
- The Space Review: "Coming to terms with the end of the Falcon 9", Jeff Foust, September 21, 2026
- Light Reading: Starship launch reignites rocket shortage worries for Starlink rivals, September 30, 2026
- Florida Today: SpaceX, NASA rocket launch schedule in Florida, October 1, 2026 and Florida Today space newsletter on the SpaceX launch slowdown, September 7, 2026
- U.S. Space Force, 45th Weather Squadron (Eastern Range launch forecast support)
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment.